Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 3/2 – Kentucky Derby Prep Races at Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Turfway

Saturday 3/2/24 – Kentucky Derby Prep Races

We reach the point on the trail to the Kentucky Derby where the races mean more and also are worth more points. If the NCAA did not copyright or trademark “March Madness”, this weekend’s races could fall under that moniker. We have three races this weekend (Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct today, San Felipe reschedules for tomorrow at Santa Anita) which are 50 points to the winner and 105 points to be divvied up to the top five, and the John Battaglia Memorial, which is the final 42-point race (20 points to the winner) until the last chance Lexington Stakes on April 13.

The hoses that win the Fountain of Youth, Gotham and San Felipe, unless your horse is a Bob Baffert trainee, can pretty much reserve a spot in the gate for the Kentucky Derby in May. Today, I will take a look at the three Kentucky races still running today.

Gotham Stakes (Aqueduct Race 10, Grade 3, 1 mile)

We will go in sequential order here today, and the first race to run today is the Gotham Stakes, which is a one-turn one-mile race. Rain is in the forecast for Saturday in Queens, so handicap accordingly for a sloppy track with these 13 entrants. Post time for this prep race is for approximately 5:36 pm Eastern time.

The morning line favorite for the Gotham is the 10 Just a Touch (5/2odds). He loved the slop at the Fair Grounds back on January 25 and ran them off their feet. He won while easily taking over the race as they straightened up at the top of the long Fair Grounds stretch to draw off by almost five lengths. This is a one-turn mile, so there is a distinct possibility that he could stalk again and take over in the stretch.

The 7 El Grande O (6/1 ML) is by for the most experienced horse I the field, already running in his eleventh race today. While some horses may get spooked with the surroundings, he will be cool under pressure. He got bumped around at the start of the race, but could not hold on to a three length lead in the deep stretch to Uncle Heavy to lose by the slimmest of margins in the Withers which was run on a muddy track. He has shown he can handle the wet surface that I expect here.

Bergen (#8, 9/2 ML) had a similar trip at Aqueduct in a minor stake just like what Just a Touch had at the Fair Ground on January 27. He is second race off the layoff and is an obvious contender here, especially if he runs the same race as last time out.

Capital Idea (#13, 12/1 ML) looked very impressive in his maiden breaker on January 28. He will have approximately half a mile of backstretch to get over and should. He could be a nice closer at a very nice price.

Despite the thoughts on the 13, I’m going to go with some chaklk here and take the 10 Just a Touch here who will get first run in the stretch and win over the slop at Aqueduct. I’m calling this 10-7-8-13 and my play for the Aqueduct finale is $10 to win on the 10.

Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gulfstream Park Race 4, Grade 2, one mile and one-sixteenth)

Next on the docket for today is the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, which is the last race on a monster 14-race card that begins at 11:15 am. The 14th and final race of the day in South Florida is set for 6:10 pm.

We do have two cross entries in the program for this race. Both of them were entered for a race on Friday. Speak Easy was scratched yesterday for the Fountain of Youth and should be running, while #6 Merit (15/1 ML) ran in the seventh race and finished second to an odds-on favorite. Obviously, Merit will be scratched from today’s race. There will still be eight horses in this important race on the South Florida trail.

The favorite here Dornoch (#5, 2/1 ML) who returns to the races today after winning the Remsen in an absolute thriller over Sierre Leone who won the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds two weeks ago in his return to the races.

It will be interesting to see who goes for the lead here. Dornoch will be on the lead. The 3 Victory Avenue (4/1 ML) should be on the lead just like he was when he finished second in his maiden debut, where he lost to a debuting Speak Easy (9/2 ML) who battled on the front end most of the backstretch before taking over in the stretch. If this scenario happens, this race is going to set up for a closer to pass by these dueling horses near the end of the race.

The 8 Locked (5/2 ML) does return from the sidelines after his third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He will definity be closing in this race, but how many targets will be have on the front end?

The 4 Real Macho (8/1 ML) won at a mile last time out at Gulfstream and is entered into this race with an opportunity to make that two-turn race at the beginning of January look like an outlier race. He’s run well on the one-turn mile, but this is a two-turn race. He should have a better result than that one two races ago.

With this race, I am going to try to beat the favorites here. I think this is going to be a Todd Pletcher exacta. I think we could have a new star on our hands in South Florda with Speak Easy. He outduels Locked to the wire here. I’ll call this 1-8-5-4, and I will have two plays here. First, $10 to win on the 1 Speak Easy, and add the 8 Locked for an exacta box of 1 and 8.

John Battaglia Memorial (Turfway Park Race 6, mile and one-sixteenth on the synthetic track)

The final Kentucky Derb prep race takes us to Florence, Kentucky for the Battaglia which is a mile and a sixteenth on synthetic. Post time for this race is 8:25 pm Eastern, so you will have a bit of a break after the Fountain of Youth before this race heads to the gate.

There is an overflow field of 14 horses in this race, and like most race at Turfway, 12 horses will run in this race. Favored is the 6 Epic Ride (5/2 ML) who won the Leonatus last time out going gate to wire. He could have speed on both sides of him with the 4 Bolt at Midnight (4/1 ML) to his left, who went gate to wire last time out to break his maiden, and the 12 Encino (9/2 ML) who will try to cross over quickly before the field hits the first turn.

If this duel develops, this is going to benefit the 1 Gettysburg Address (6/1 ML) who is third race off of a layoff, but he has improved his position in his last two races at Oaklawn. If he can handle the synthetic here tonight, he’s going to be a nice price for his backers.

Another candidate to benefit from a potential speed duel is the 7 Blue Eyed George (6/1 ML). He was about two to three lengths back of Epic Ride but couldn’t catch him in the stretch. He might reverse things with the favorite here.

I think Gettysburg Address gets it done here at a nice price as Epic Ride will be softened up by the 4 and the 12. I am going to call this 1-7-6-4 and my play is $10 to win on the 1.

That’s it for now and keep an eye out for me on Twitter in the event that there are any scratches in these three races. Good luck everyone, and tomorrow, we will have some races from Santa Anita.

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