After a successful trip to the Finger Lakes region after I advised of the scratch of my initial pick, we head back north of the border for an evening race at Assiniboia Downs as we will look at the Debutante Stakes, which is a race for two-year-old fillies going five furlongs. But it will not be that late of a night for the QPW readers as post time tonight is set for approximately 9:25 pm Eastern time.
This is a race where five of the six entrants raced against each other two weeks ago at Assiniboia in a maiden two-year-old race. This is probably a race were you will really need to know the ins and outs of Assiniboia Downs and horsemen that call AsD home. Even though I don’t know all the trends and things going on with Assiniboia Downs, that’s what makes handicapping horse racing so much fun in my eyes. Even without the money variable, it’s one big puzzle that needs to be solved.
Assiniboia Downs – Debutante Stakes
The 1 Welcometohollywood is the heavy 3/5 morning line favorite here and was very impressive as she blew by the dueling front runners after she veered inward once the gates opened. She might even be closer to the pace here and forced to go from the rail with other fillies that went for the lead last time out.
The 2 Sneaky Situation (10/1 ML) is the lone filly to did not run two weeks ago and may be in a tough situation here. Her dam’s offspring does win 17% of the time lifetime (18 for 105) and won 3 of 10 races as two-year-olds. She has had some good works leading up to tonight’s debut, but I would like to see a race from here first.
The 3 Gee I’m Foxy (4/1 ML) dueled with the 6 Another Command (6/1 ML) out of the gate when the favorite veered inward. Gee I’m Foxy won the battle of the duel on the front end two weeks ago but lost the war as the favorite got a hole to go wide on the turn to win by three lengths. I could potentially see another speed duel developing with these two, but if either of these horses end up alone on the lead, we could see one of the aforementioned fillies going gate to wire.
The 5 Twolefttoload (9/2 ML) finished behind the top three two weeks ago and might be a candidate to break her maiden in this race. Trainer Michael Nault wins 42% of the time with his horses running their second career race, so I’m hoping that alone inspires the adjustments needed to get this filly’s picture taken in the winner’s circle tonight. Jockey Prayven Badrie won 25% of his races so far this year, all at Assiniboia.
The 4 Itsaprilsday (15/1 ML) briefly had the lead at the start of her debut race and then promptly drifted towards the back of the pack. Personally, I’d like to see a race from here before I put my money, or tell you to put your money, on her.
I admit that it is hard to look away from the heavy favorite Welcometohollywood here. I could eventually fall on the lone first time starter, just like I landed on a first time starter yesterday at Finger Lakes. I want to try to make some money out of a race that will not return much.
I think the favorite will win this easily once again. Let’s toss the 4 Itsaprilsday and the 6 Another Command. Tonight at Assiniboia Downs, we will play our first trifecta of the Quills Picks Winners series here on Bleacher Brothers. Let’s take advantage of the 20-cent minimum wagers here (at least for my statistical purposes) and play a $2 trifecta key of the 1 Welcometohollywood over the 2 Sneaky Situation, 3 Gee I’m Foxy and the 5 Twolefttoload. The 1 over 2,3,5 over 2,3,5 trifecta at the $2 increment will cost you $12.
Best of luck to everyone as we will have another Spa Day tomorrow.
Check out my stream “The Joe Quills Show” on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays starting at 9 pm Eastern on my Twitch, X and YouTube talking about the latest sports news and whatever comes up; and catch my horse racing show every Saturday at 10 am Eastern on the Bleacher Brothers platforms.