Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
Carson Fullmer (0-3) vs. Seth Lugo (13-7)
Royals -1.5, Seth Lugo Over 5.5 Strikeouts, and Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Runs
The Royals are fresh off of a series sweep over the Reds at Great American Ballpark, and look to stay hot against one of the league’s weakest offenses. Still three games back from first place in the American League Central, these are must win games. That makes the spread tonight against a pitcher with a 4.22 ERA the play.
The last time Seth Lugo started against the Angels, he went 8.0 innings with 12 strikeouts. While he hasn’t cleared the line in awhile there’s great value with this pick. With the need for the Royals to stay hot, Lugo should put together a good start. Another key piece to the Royals keeping their win streak is their MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. The young phenom’s been on a solid streak of tallying runs for the Royals, with six runs scored in the last four games. The runs scored line feels the safest here to take in game one.
Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres
Zebby Matthews (1-0) vs. Michael King (10-6)
Twins +1.5, Zebby Matthews Over 3.5 Strikeouts
This is an interesting game, as one of the Twins top prospects Zebby Matthews comes into Petco Park to make his second start. His first start against the Royals went well, as he posted a final stat-line of 5.0 innings pitched, with five hits, two earned runs, and five strikeouts. If Matthews can go at least five innings in this start, he should be able to easily surpass this line of 3.5 strikeouts.
If Matthews can put together a good start against San Diego tonight, the Twins should have a good shot at winning the game. However, the Twins are 3-13 in their last 16 games on the road against opponents with winning records, making the spread seem like a safer play.
Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics
Taj Bradley (6-7) vs. Joe Boyle (2-5)
Under 7.5 Total Runs, JJ Bleday Over 0.5 Hits, Taj Bradley Over 4.5 Hits Allowed
The under seems like the right play based on the trends. The under is 6-0 in the last six Athletics home games, 4-0 in their last four home games against a right handed starter, and 4-0 in their last four Monday games. The Rays last six games against the American League West have also gone under.
Bleday in a small sample size against Taj Bradley has a .500 batting average, and a left handed hitter against right handed pitcher matchup is favorable here. After a couple bad games against San Francisco, Bleday we’ll look to keep up his production from the previous series against the Mets.
Taj Bradley has been struggling lately giving up way more than this line of 4.5 is set at in his last two starts. He’s given up 17 hits in his last two starts, and on the road seems like a good pick. Even if Bradley gives up five hits, it can still be a decent bounce back start.
