After a couple of days in Kentucky, we take a day trip to New York for today’s QPW. We are on the turf for the Carle Place today, as we have nine three-year-olds going six furlongs on the outer turf course.
Belmont at the Big A Race 9 – Carle Place Stakes
Favored in today’s race is the 2 Works for Me (3/1 morning line). He finished third last time out at Saratoga in the Mahony. He dropped back to the back of the pack, something he had not done before. After starting his move on the turn, he was forced wide by another horse, but still closed well despite the trouble to finish fifth. He still hasn’t won on the turf yet, but six furlongs may be his best turf distance.
The 4 Run Carson (4/1 ML) finished second in the Mahony, ahead of the morning line favorite back in August. He races two weeks ago at Keeneland were he lost all chances having to steady on the backstretch. He has been close to the pace in the past and should be in that position again today.
The 9 Smokey Smokey (9/2 ML) comes back to New York today after not showing much in the Grade 1 Franklin Simpson Stakes. He won the Paradise Creek here at the Big A back in May, and should be stalking after breaking today from the outside post.
The 8 Live High Live Low (8/1 ML) won on the turf at the Meadowlands going a mile. He will shorten up to the shortest distance he has run on the turf but could be full of run here at the end today.
Joe’s Pick
I can see why the 2 Works for Me is favored here. However, he has never won on the turf. But I do have visions of me saying something that has never happened in the past and it happens as in this race today.
But I am still going against the favorite here. I love the idea of the 9 Smokey Smokey stalking on the outside taking over in the stretch. I think he holds off the 8 Live High Live Low to win the Carle Place today here at the Big A. Let’s call this race 9-8-2-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 9. Best of luck everyone!
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