We head back north of the border to Winnipeg for the finale tonight at Assiniboia Downs as we have an allowance race for horses going six furlongs. Have your coffee ready if you are interested in tonight’s race, because the race is schedule to go postward around 11:05 pm Eastern time.
Favored in tonight’s race is the 1 Green Amazon (2/1 morning line). He shortens up from running a mile here to tonight’s distance of six furlongs. He seems to be close the last few times out, but he just does not find a way to win, which explains the 1 for 22 lifetime record. But if he has the ability to close from off the pace, he will have a great chance of getting his picture taken tonight.
The 4 Dare to Endure (7/2 ML) won two weeks ago in his second career start and will face winners for the first time. This is the logical next step for this gelding, but will he be able to handle other speed on his outside?
The 6 Air Force Reserve (4/1 ML) returns to allowance company after running out of condition in a non-winners of three races lifetime. Tonight is a non-winners of two races that will be a drop despite the fact that he is back in allowance company tonight. This gelding is all speed here and tends to tire in the stretch.
As I am handicapping this race, I am wondering if the 3 Kentucky Jake (8/1 morning line) will be scratched. He has already a gelding who has won two races in his career, which would make him ineligible for this race. I found the Assiniboia Downs condition book because you will see the different criteria that horses have to fall under to run. Some races have a few different conditions, but this race is not listed for today in the condition book.
So if this horse does run, he either is under investigation for a bad post-race test, there are conditions that allow a horse with two wins into this race that is not known to the public, or why I think this horse will be scratched, there was a clerical error that allowed this horse in the field. He closed well the last two times out against claiming company and won his first race back in June. But I question if he’s eligible for this race or not.
The 2 Lucky Appeal (3/1 ML) is back after a failed attempt to try to win the Manitoba Derby two weeks ago. He was on the lead, but he was going two turns in those marathon races (in AsD terms). He ends up in much softer surroundings in this race but has not been able to finish.
The 7 J L Copper (20/1 ML) drops from a stakes race with a runaway winner. He was floated wide by the runner up in this race and still closed well to get third last time out. He is a longshot who may go back to his old front running ways, but if the trouble that he had at the start of the race is what the horse needs to learn to rate, he might steal this at a huge price.
I am going to swing for the fences here. This is a non-winners of two races lifetime race where you see why some of these horses are stuck in this N2L condition. I may be reading too much into J L Cooper’s last race but I think we will have an upset winner here to end the Monday night card. Let’s call this 7-4-2-1 and my play is $20 to win on the 7. Best of luck everyone!
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