By Joe Quillen
Saturday 1/20/24 – Fair Grounds Races 9 through 13
Since we have a Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks prep race today, I thought I would pivot away from my usual way of picking a single race and spotlight the Fair Grounds by looking at the last five races in the card. Yes, this will be a long article, but it will be a fun little exercise here as I’ll look at the races individually with thoughts on each race as well as what I like in the late pick four and pick five. If you just want my picks, you can scroll down to the summary of my selections at the end of this article.
Let’s being with race 9 at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans and that is the Marie G. Krantz Memorial Stakes where fillies and mares ages four years old and up go a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. For those that are looking to potentially make big money, this is the start of an all stakes pick 5. So, you do have the potential for a big payout is there.
This is no real speed in this race. The longshot #3 Swoonatra (20/1morning line) looks like the candidate here to go for the front out of the gate, but she’s been running mostly at Gulfstream against claimers. This is a major step up, even for a 100k race for her. I expect her to fade here.
The 1 Lovely Princess (3/1 ML), the 5 Creative Cairo (4/1 ML) and the 8 Join the Dance (12/1 ML) all come out of the Blushing KD Stakes last month at Fair Grounds, and it looks like we could have a replay of that. But I think Unbridled Mary (#7, 10/1 ML) can steal this race with a return to the turf course today. I’ll call this 7-5-1-8 in the ninth at the Fair Grounds.
Race 10 is the Silverbulletday which is a prep race for the Kentucky Oaks. Eight fillies are entered in this leg of the Louisiana road to the Kentucky Oaks.
The 2/1 morning line favorite is the 6 West Omaha who finished second last month in the Untapable and was three and four wide last time out and definitely can handle the distance here.
It looks like there will be speed for West Omaha to target in the 1 Perfect Shot (4/1 ML), 3 Miss Code West (9/2 ML) and the 4 Play Good Pay Good (15/1 ML). But I think there is a possibility that the 3 can stalk behind the 1 and 4, just like how she was a couple lengths back in the Slide Show Stakes at Remington in November. Sistina Chapel (#8, 7/2 ML) could pick up the pieces as well here and will hit the board.
I think Miss Code West does that and wins the Silverbulletday, hopefully at a good price. I’ll call this race 3-6-8.
Race 11 is the Colonel E.R. Bradley Stakes which is a mile and a sixteenth turf race for four-year-olds and up. Nine horses are entered here.
The 2 Strong Quality (3/1 ML) should be on the lead and has faced tougher last summer at Belmont in the Manhattan and the Arlington Million at Colonial Downs. He returns to the turf and is a strong candidate to go gate to wire.
The 5 English Tavern (6/1 ML) and the 6 Who Took the Money are candidates to beat the 2 as is the 9 Beatbox who is the 5/2 morning line favorite. I’m going to call this 2-6-9-5 as I think Strong Quality will hold on in the stretch.
Race 12 is the Grade 3 Louisiana Handicap, a race for four-year-olds and up going a mile and a sixteenth. Saudi Crown is the 8/5 morning line favorite, returning from an almost three-month layoff after a failed run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He should have company at the start of the race with the 5 Five Star General (6/1 ML) who is stepping up in class after a few minor states at Delta Downs and the Fair Grounds, and the 7 Kupuna (15/1 ML) who is on the outside here but might be “race filler” as I like to call it.
This race will set up nicely for the 1 Red Route One (5/1 ML) and the 4 Happy American (8/1 ML) who look like the stone cold closers in this race. Happy American won this race last year and could do it again if a speed duel does develop.
The 2 Smile Away (9/5 ML) should have first turn turning for home but need this race after running for the first time since Ellis Park on July 1.
I’ll take Happy American here in a bit of an upset here. I think there will be a speed duel that may soften up Saudi Crown. I’m calling It 4-2-1-3 in the Louisiana Stakes.
The 13th and final race on the monster card at the Fair Grounds is the Lecomte Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth, with the winner earning 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby in May.
Eight horses are entered for the Lecomte which is the second leg of the Louisiana road to the Kentucky Derby. The favorite Track Phantom (#7, 9/5 ML) essentially went get to wire last out in the first Louisiana race the Gun Runner stakes right before Christmas and has the potential to go get to wire yet again.
The 1 Next Level (30/1 ML) and the 6 Lat Long (8/1 ML) both showed speed in their maiden breakers, but I doubt they will be as fast as Track Phantom.
The 5 Ethan Energy (4/1 ML) looks like he can find his way in contention here as he was wide most of the maiden breaker he was in. Don’t be surprised if he wins this, but I am going elsewhere.
Nash (#2, 5/2 ML) tired in the Gun Runner last month, but that was the first time against winners. That experience will help him here.
Awesome Road (#8, 8/1 ML) is an interesting horse who should be there because he was cross entered for a race at Turfway that was cancelled. He’s tried to go to the front last time out and faded big time. He might enjoy not being pinned on the inside, but I want to wait a race with him.
In the Lecomte, I am calling this 7-5-2 in the Lecomte, the Fair Grounds Saturday finale.
Below are my top picks for the five races I looked at. All these wagers are $10 to win, and if the horse is scratched, I will pass.
- Race 9: 7 (Unbridled Mary)
- Race 10: 3 (Miss Code West)
- Race 11: 2 (Strong Quality)
- Race 12: 4 (Happy American)
- Race 13: 7 (Track Phantom)
Pick 5 starting with race 9 (50 cent increment)
1,5,7 with 3,6 with 2,6 with 1,2,4 with 5,7 ($36 ticket)
Pick 4 starting with race 10 (50 cent increment)
3,6 with 2,6 with 1,2,4 with 5,7 ($12 ticket)
If there are any scratches that I feel will majorly effect my pick 4 and pick 5, check me on Twitter @JoeQuills and I will give an updated pick for this article.
Best of luck on Saturday and enjoy the races wherever you are! See ya Sunday!
Follow Joe on Twitter/Instagram/Threads @JoeQuills. Check out the Bleacher Brothers Show from 8 to 10 pm Eastern Time on the Tony Bruno Sports Network app! Also check Joe’s sports stream podcast on Twitch every Tuesday and Thursday at 10 pm ET, and his YouTube channel where you can catch the show on demand.
