By Joe Quillen
Saturday 2/24 – Oaklawn Park
I hinted in yesterday’s article that today’s article would be for the races at Oaklawn Park, and in fact, that is the case today as I will look at their three graded stakes on the card today, the Honeybee which is a Grade 3 race for three-year old fillies on the road to the Kentucky Oaks, the Razorback which is a race for older horses, and the Rebel which is for the three-year olds on the Kentucky Derby trail.
Honeybee Stakes (Grade 3, mile and 1/16)
The Honeybee Stakes is the first race that I will look at and this is the ninth race on the program. Ten fillies will go a mile and a sixteenth here. The morning line favorite here is the 6 West Omaha (7/5 ML). She was my pick last week in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds and comes back to this spot. There will be speed here for West Omaha to corral as she turns for home.
The 1 Alys Beach (10/1 ML), The 3 Honor Cat (15/1 ML), the 4 Neom Beach (8/1 ML), the 8 Tapit Jenallie (10/1 ML) and the 9 In Just My Heels (20/1 ML) all look like candidates that could be on the lead. Look for a combination of these filling gunning for the lead out of the gate to the first turn. I’m expecting West Omaha to be just behind those leaders.
West Omaha is proven around two turns, but a filly that may need to prove herself is Band of Gold (2/1 ML). She closed to win on the slop to win the Martha Washington earlier this month but was it the slop that she enjoyed, or did she finally put it together? Personally, I would let this horse beat me.
The 10 Midshipman’s Dance (12/1 ML) will benefit from what looks like a race with a ton of speed here. She won the Mockingbird last month at six furlongs, so she will need an extra two and a half furlongs here, but the trainer is good with getting horses to go two turns.
I think West Omaha invades from Fair Grounds and wins this race. I’m going to say that the 10 Midshipman’s Dance will get second over the 2 Band of Gold. I’ll call this 6-10-2-3 in the Honeybee, and my play is $10 to win on the 6.
Razorback Handicap (Race 3, mile and 1/16)
We have a large field of 13 older horses entered to go a mile and a sixteenth here. Note that the 4 Ain’t Life Grand(7/2 morning line) is cross-entered for the ninth race at Oaklawn and from what I am seeing, he will be scratched for a softer spot for his five year old debut tomorrow.
The 11 Notary (10/1 ML) will get a fast track today, but the track condition should not matter for this six year old. He will be in one of the outside gates and will have to figure out how to run this race. I think the best course here is to stalk behind the leaders here. He’s won around two turns and has won a minor stake that was off the turf at Hawthorne last summer. He’s an interesting horse in this race despite going up in class here.
The 8 Magic Tap (9/2 ML) defaults into the morning line favorite with the apparent scratch of Ain’t Life Grand. He shortens up half a furlong after winning an allowance race first start off of a layoff. He should get a better trip than Notary here.
The 1 Seize the Night (6/1 ML) will benefit from a dry track and speed in this race. He will be a couple of lengths behind the 8 and the 11, and replicates the 5th Season race last out, he will win a race that will go to the main finish line, and not the first line finish of the mile race he was in last time.
The 5 Octane (5/1 ML) almost won gate to wire last time out at Gulfstream, but he’s not necessarily a need the lead type that the likes of the 2 Frosted Departure (15/1 ML), the properly named Speed Bias (#3, 6/1 ML) and the 7 U.S. Army (15/1 ML) who may be the fastest of this triumvirate. The lead won’t hold here. I wouldn’t even be surprised if a longshot like the 9 O P Firecracker (15/1 ML) steals this at a huge price.
I’m going to call this 1-8-9-5 and my play is $10 to win on the 1.
Rebel Stakes (Grade 2, mile and 1/16)
The main (or is it mane?) event of the day is the Rebel Stakes and this is a race for the horses looking to get into the Kentucky Derby. Once again, a mile and a sixteenth race here that drew a large field of 13 horses here.
The morning line favorite in this race is the 7 Timberlake (6/5 ML) who will be returning to the races since finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s going to be tough here and should get a nice trip here. He’s going to need points here, but he should be able to handle this field.
The 11 Just Steal draws the 11 post for this race and will have some work to do in this race. We can kinda ignore the last race as Mystik Dan turned that race into a rout late. He’s familiar with this track having run the first two Kentucky Prep races here at Oaklawn and is an upset contender if you can call a 7/2 morning line horse an upset chance.
The 9 Lagynos went for the lead in the Smarty Jones, but I don’t think that happens here. If he can replicate his allowance win at Churchill in November, he will at the very least hit the board here.
I think the 2 Northern Flame could be candidate to go for the lead, and should be passed in the stretch. But I don’t think he completely drops anchor and will get some Kentucky Derby points here in the end.
I’ll call this 6-9-11-2 and my play here is $10 to win on the 6.
Finally, I’ll give you the pick three here for races 9-11 here. If there are any significant scratches, check out my Twitter as I will update my picks. Here’s a summary of my picks, and my pick 3 as we close out this article. Good luck everyone, and catch you tomorrow for another Quills Picks Winners.
Wager Summary
Race 9: $10 to win on the 6
also $1 pick 3: 2,6,10 w/ 1,8,9 w/ 6 = $9 ticket
Race 10: $10 to win on the 1
Race 11: $10 to win on the 6
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