By Joe Quillen
Kentucky Derby Prep Race Day
Welcome in everyone, as a special Saturday is planned here as I will be looking at the four Kentucky Derby Prep Races that will be run across the country. This article will look at the Withers at Aqueduct, the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, and finally the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. All four races have a 20-10-6-4-2 point value for the top five finishers, as long as the horses are not trained by Bob Baffert.
As you know, Baffert had a five positive drug tests on his horses over a year long period ending with Medina Spirit’s positive after he finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Because Baffert is still banned from the track, his horses had to be moved by this past Monday to get points for the Kentucky Derby. As you know from my stream/podcast The Philly Guy Speaks, the owners who trust their horses with Baffert chose not to move their horses to other barns to get points. In other words, the nominated horses are still eligible for the Preakness at Pimlico and the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga (weird typing that), but cannot run at Churchill on May 4.
Withers – Aqueduct Race 8 – 3:55 pm ET post time
The first race in today’s four races that I will look at is the Withers at Aqueduct. Nine horses are entered, and it will be interesting to see what the track condition is. It did rain yesterday, but according to my trusty weather app, there’s no rain expected in New York for the next 10 days.
The 3 Lightline (8/5 morning line favorite) tried graded stakes company for the first time in a race that has come up a bit soft in graded stakes experience. The 4 El Grande O (5/2 ML) appears to be going for the lead here and could have company from the 5 Seminole Chief (12/1 ML) who comes up Florida for this race.
The 1 Speed Runner (5/1 ML) has the rail here, and broke his maiden going this distance of 9 furlongs. If a speed duel develops here, the 8 Uncle Heavy could pick up the pieces here. He passed his first two turn test last time out in a PA-bred stakes race at Parx, and the jockey/trainer combo of Mychal Sanchez and Butch Reid is a dangerous one at Parx that goes up I-95 to get some Kentucky Derby points.
I’m calling this race 8-1-3-4 in the Withers at Aqueduct, and my place is $10 to win on the 8 Uncle Heavy.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes – Santa Anita Race 5 – 5:23 pm ET post time
After an hour break we have three races back to back here in the 5 pm hour. Nine horses are entered in this race, and three of them are horses trained by Bob Baffert.
The 6 Nysos (4/5 morning line) is the heavy favorite here after romping in the Bob Hope at Del Mar in November. He’s making the progression from seven furlongs last out to two turns here. He should have no problem here going two turns though as a Baffert trainee, he won’t get points for the Kentucky Derby.
The 5 Coach Prime (5/1 ML) is another Baffert trained horse who was wide both turns in the Los Al Futurity last time out in December. Note that the turns are much sharper than your typical mile circumference track as Los Al was a five-furlong track until it was extended to prep for the Hollywood Park closing. He will appreciate a course with wider turns.
The 7 Stronghold (6/1 ML) may be the best of the non-Baffert horses. He was outfinished by Wynstock who runs in the Southwest. He’ll be stalking. I’ll also throw the 3 in, Better Than Gold (6/1 ML) who looks like a closer in this race. He won’t win, but will get a piece at the end and some Derby points.
I am calling this 6-7-5-3 and my play is $20 to win on the 6.
Holy Bull Stakes – Gulfstream Race 12 – 5:45 pm ET post time
This race features the return of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Fierceness (3/5 ML) who is a heavy favorite in his return. He always has 30 points, which could be enough already to run in the Kentucky Derby. The question is whether or not Fierceness will be cranked up and ready to go. I think he will be though the goal is May 4.
Fierceness may have some company with Domestic Product (#6, 8/1 ML) could be challenging the heavy favorite. The 3 Otello could the setup if a speed duel develops. Hades (#1, 6/1 ML) is 2 for 2 after winning an allowance on New Year’s Eve. He draws the rail and could be contributing to a speed duel if it develops.
In the end, I think that Fierceness could lay back and make a move on the final turn. Let’s call this 7-3-6-1 in the Holy Bull, and my play is $20 to win on the 7 Fierceness.
Southwest Stakes – Oaklawn Race 11 – 5:50 pm ET post time
The finale for Saturday is the Southwest, where we should have a field of 11 running. There are 12 horses entered, but the 1 Maycocks Bay spiked a fever in the last day or two and was scratched. Don’t worry about that cross entry note with the 12 Awesome Road (8/1 ML). He was cross entered for the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway Park but was scratched to run here.
Rain is in the forecast for Oaklawn Park so plan accordingly. This race is a mile and a sixteenth and is the second leg of Arkansas’ road to the Kentucky Derby.
The 4 Otto the Conqueror (5/1 ML) was a QPW winner back in December at Remington in the Springboard Mile and earned 10 points for that win. He showed he can handle two turns and is 2 for 2 running on wet tracks. Be might have to rate behind Wynstock (4/1 ML) who won on the front end in the Los Al Futurity last time out, and previously in a maiden win at Santa Anita in October.
Things can set up very nicely for Liberal Arts (8/1 ML) here in this race. Though he hasn’t run since the end of October in a Grade 3 win, this race will set up nicely for him with the speed in this race. The 7 Carbone (9/2 ML) will be putting more fuel to that fire on the front end. The 8 Common Defense (15/1 ML) might not win this race, but I think with the speed in here, I think he gets a piece here and some Derby points.
I’ll call this race 6-5-8-4 and my play is $10 to win on the 6 Liberal Arts.
Best of luck everyone and catch you tomorrow with another Quills Picks Winners.
Follow Joe on Twitter/Instagram/Threads @JoeQuills. Check out the Bleacher Brothers Show from 8 to 10 pm Eastern Time on the Tony Bruno Sports Network app! Also check Joe’s sports stream podcast on Twitch every Tuesday and Thursday at 10 pm ET, and his YouTube channel where you can catch the show on demand.
