By Joe Quillen
Saturday 5/18/24 – Pimlico Race 13 – Preakness Stakes
We reach the second leg of this year’s Triple Crown as we stay in Baltimore for the Preakness. Here at Bleacher Brothers we will educate you like only we can, and if you did not know, today’s race is a mile and 3/16 around the Pimlico main track. We had nine horses entered, but barring anything unforeseen between now and 7 pm Eastern time, eight horses will run with the scratch of Muth.
In Friday’s races at Pimlico, you had to be on the lead or not far from it. If you were more than two or three lengths behind the leaders, you were not closing. There is rain in the forecast on Saturday, so I am expecting a muddy to sloppy track for the Preakness. Does that mean that you may not win on the front end? Only time will tell.
I’ll go through the eight horses that will be going to the gate and my picks for today’s race.
Drawing the rail is Mugatu (20/1 morning line) and he did not draw in off of the also eligible list in the Kentucky Derby. He was last seen finishing fifth at Keeneland in the Blue Grass, but didn’t seem to have that much of a closing kick. He made a nice move on the backstretch to the middle of the final turn. Maybe he makes a move today, but I don’t think he wins here.
Next is the Philly horse Uncle Heavy (20/1 ML) who drew the outside post in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He had some issues training up after the win in the Withers. He was stuck on a farm in New York after an equineherpes outbreak at nearby Belmont forced Parx to close the backstretch to New York shippers, including horses returning from Aqueduct. Then he didn’t start too well in the beginning and then was next to the other Philly horse that fell in the stretch. I’m excited to see him run in this race, but he could be a step too slow despite winning in the mud in the Withers.
Catching Freedom wheels back after finishing fourth in the Derby. It did look like he was bounced around at the start of the race and made a sustained run and was catching up to Mystik Dan from the inside to the point where he might have had nowhere to go if the race had been half a furlong to a furlong longer.
The Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (5/2 ML) had a similar trip in the Derby as he did in the Derby where he was on the rail and took over in the stretch. There is much less horses in this race, but he hasn’t replicated the same race twice. I think he was praying for the wire and the end and his prayer was answered with that nose win.
Seize the Grey (15/1 ML) won the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard and bounced back after not showing much in the Blue Grass. He will definitely get the distance as Arrogate’s offspring average 7.8 furlongs per win. But the question is whether or not the talent is there even after running 14 days ago.
Just Steel (15/1 ML) did not show much and is looking to bounce back after that performance. Many horses have had this running line in the Derby, and all you can say is that it just happens. You could argue that the Derby was a bounce race but if you noticed the last four races have been good/bad/good/bad. I personally think he won’t be there in the end.
Tuscan Gold (8/1 ML) is the wise guy horse here after just missing at today’s distance in the Louisiana Derby. Antiquarian, who was my pick in the Peter Pan won last week and was finishing with Tuscan Gold most of the way. There are many things to like here.
Imagination (6/1 ML) turns from the “other Baffert horse” to the Baffert horse after Muth spiked a fever after arriving in Baltimore. I’m getting visions of National Treasure winning the Preakness last year where he went for the lead and never looked back.
Front running speed in California is a totally different animal than what you see from the rest of the country. I see Imagination going for the lead and just going all the way around in front. Keep an eye on how the dirt races are running, especially if it rains. If horses are still winning at or near the front end, Imagination is your horse. I’ll play him here in the Preakness.
I’ll call this 9-3-8-2 and my plays are:
- $20 on the 9 Imagination
- 50-cent superfecta box 2,3,8,9 which will cost $12.
Note that unlike the Kentucky Derby and Oaks race days, you can dabble with dime superfectas with all the races at Pimlico today, not just in the Preakness. Good luck everyone!
Check out my show “Also Eligible” on Saturday mornings at 10 am Eastern/7 am Pacific as AJ Johnson and I discuss the big races, the latest news in horse racing and much more!