Welcome to part two of the six stakes races at Kentucky Downs as we look at the final three races of this stakes sequence. Hopefully we got some winners home already and look to make some more money on this card.
Kentucky Downs Race 9 – Franklin-Simpson Stakes (Grade 1)
Next up is the main event of the day though one can argue that all six of these races are main events. This is the Franklin-Simpson Stakes for three-year-olds going six and a half furlongs.
Favored in this Grade 1 is the 11 Mansa Musa who was wide and did not have its typical kick at Saratoga last time out. This Irish-bred colt will go back to his roots with this European style course and will enjoy the wider turns here today,
Those that watched “The Big Bang Theory” will recognize the name Howard Wolowitz (#10, 9/2 ML). In the same race at Saratoga, he closed well on the inside but had to steady in the final sixteenth of the race. He faces an outside post, but he could show that last month’s race was not a fluke in his turf debut.
The 8 Please Advise (8/1 ML) closed well in the Hall Of Fame at Saratoga last month and should be closing here today as well. I’ve talked about the transitive properties in the past, and if you think that Buttercream Babe wins here race earlier in the card, then you have to play this horse as well.
If you are looking for a European horse here, then the 2 Evade (12/1 ML) might be your choice. Yes, the last two races are not great races. But he comes into this race as a first time gelding and will be racing carrying six pounds less than last time at Chester in the UK. He should like the course today and pull off the upset.
With the transitive property angle that I’ve pushed onto everyone the last couple of weeks, you probably think that since I took Buttercream Babe in the seventh race, I am taking Please Advise here in this Grade 1. Since it is college football season, in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend!
I am going to go against my betting angle with an angle that I used to use at Woodbine. I loved to play horses first running in North America who were carrying less weight then abroad. I will go with that angle instead with Evade in the Franklin-Simpson.
I am calling this race 2-8-10-11 and my play is $20 to win on the 2.
Kentucky Downs Race 10 – Turf Cup Stakes (Grade 2)
We have 11 horses entered in this mile and a half test and favored in this race is the 2 Integration (8/5 ML). He closed well in the Arlington Million at Colonial last month. He is one-for-four this year but he has shown that he is a horse to be reckoned with in his eight-race career.
The 11 Chief Little Rock (4/1 ML) showed little back in June at the Royal Ascot meet but I am willing to give a pass on that race. Once again here we have a horse that is first time racing in North America and he will have 10 less pounds to carry around the course today. He has won at a mile and a quarter in Ireland, so I’m willing to give another shot today.
Anglophile (#9, 10/1) does have the experience of running at Kentucky Downs, winning the Dueling Grounds Derby last year here. He closed well in the preview race for today’s race at Ellis Park going 10 furlongs. He will need to rally to win this race as well. But there is speed in this race that should help him today.
A horse that actually shortens up for this race is the 3 Cathkin Peak (15/1 ML) who won the John’s Call at Saratoga easily 17 days ago. I put zero stock in the fact that he ran on the lead that day considering there were only give horses in that race. I expect a rallying trip here today.
I am not sure if I will get great odds on the 11 Chief Little Rock here, but I am going to take a chance on him here. Let’s call this 11-2-3-9 and my play is $20 to win on the 11.
Race 11 – Turf Sprint (Grade 2)
We have an overflow field of thirteen in our final QPW race and favored is the 4 Cogburn (6/5 ML) who comes into this race off of a layoff which was partly to blame on the bad weather at Saratoga. He went gate to wire in the Grade 1 Jaipur setting a course record in the process. He doesn’t necessarily need the lead and that race here at Kentucky Downs does not look that bad despite the fifth place finish.
The 8 Khaadem (7/2 ML) races last month in France at Deauville, where he weakened last time out. But he does have a win at the Royal Ascot meet back in June.
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Champion #10 Nobals (6/1 ML) returned to the races after several false starts at Saratoga, finishing fourth in a close finish. He definitely looked like he needed that race as he did not look to have that kick that he had to upset the Turf Sprint field at Santa Anita. Funny name or not, he will be flying at the end here.
The 11 Witty (20/1 ML) closed willingly in the Van Clief at Colonial last month. He has not run here, but he does have experience with European style courses finishing second in June in the Highlander at Woodbine. He has a tough draw, but I think he could be in the bottom of your exotics here.
Juvenile me wants to take Nobals. The first time North America angle tells me to play Khaadem. But I will take the favorite here to close out our six races. I’ll call this 4-10-11-8 with a $20 win wager on the 4 Cogburn.
Best of luck to everyone and let’s get some winners today!
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