By Joe Quillen
Thursday 5/16 – Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) Race 6
After a cancellation yesterday at Horseshoe Indy, we had to Queens for Aqueduct’s sixth race at maidens will go on the main track. Post time is set for 3:39 pm ET.
It appears that the weather will be dry tomorrow, so I am expecting drying conditions in Ozone Park. Unlike yesterday, we will have racing unless something unexpected happens.
Favored in this field of 10 horses is the 4 Treaty Obligation (7/2 morning line). He returns after last being seen last summer at Saratoga and just missed going seven furlongs. But a lot has changed, including getting gelded sometime last year. It will be interesting to see what this gelding does here in his first race back after continually knocking on the door and just missing.
The 7 Cage Match (4/1 ML) ran closer to the lead last time out and might be joined on the front end with the horse right beside him the 8 Light the Way (8/1 ML). The latter has consistently gone for the front in his races while the former needs another race or two before we can say that he will definitely be a horse that will go to the front. But I think both these horses will be gunning for the lead.
The 6 Direct Channel (6/1 ML) appears to be interesting with a trainer that wins 17% of the time with first time starters and a sire whose offspring win 14% of the time. This colt might be a horse that will go longer here, but I think he at least gets a piece here in his debut race.
The 1 Deputy Mischief (8/1 ML) has been prepping for this debut race in Florida which is worth noting because horses training down in Florida tend to do well in their first race in northern climbs. Bill Mott horses run well first time out as do offsprings sired by Into Mischief.
If Treaty Obligation did not have as long of a layoff and the ultimate equipment change of getting gelded was more recent than six months ago, I’d be all over this horse. Instead, I’ll go with the 1 Deputy Mischief to win in his debut race. I’ll throw in the 6 Direct Channel and I think Cage Match will be the better of the speed horses. I’ll call this 1-4-6-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 1.
QPW News Desk
- Muth was scratched when he spiked a fever after arriving in Baltimore. There are at least three articles, including one from yours truly, noting this major scratch. I am planned to make an appearance on the Bleacher Brothers Show Thursday at 7:45 pm giving a quick preview of the Preakness on Saturday.
- The races on Wednesday were cancelled after four inches of rain fell on Tuesday. Apologies for not having a backup race as I got wind of the situation too close to when I was scheduled to start my real workday.
Check out my show “Also Eligible” on Saturday mornings at 10 am Eastern/7 am Pacific as AJ Johnson and I discuss the big races, the latest news in horse racing and much more!