by Joe Quillen
Thursday 6/20 – Belmont at the Big A Race 8
We head back to the east coast with a trip to New York and Aqueduct, specifically the continuation of the Belmont at the Big A meet where we have fillies and mares going a mile on the turf course here. It is going to be another hot day on the eastern seaboard, but I do not think it will be hot enough that we see post times rushed or anything like that.
We have 12 fillies and mares entered in today’s featured race, but it appears that we will only have eight distaffers headed to the gate for this race that will go off at approximately 4:42 pm Eastern time. The 9 Pretti Xtreme (3/1 ML), the 10 Into Happiness (6/1 ML), the 11 Amanda’s Folly (6/1 ML) and the 12 Toned Up (4/1 ML) are all entered for the main track only. Given the weather on the east coast, you will see them all scratched here today and running in tomorrow’s eighth race at Aqueduct, as this quartet was cross entered for then as well.
The 1 Revalita draws the rail and is the 2/1 morning line favorite here. She returns to the race for the first time since last July at Saratoga and drops in class from graded stakes company to an allowance field here today. She had a nice closing kick in the races that she ran in last year, and if the trainer stats for Chad Brown hold through with horses returning after a break of over 6 months, first time Lasix and other statistics here, she should be fine here. Besides, she did just miss at Gulfstream in March last year in her North American debut.
The 5 Quarrel (6/1 ML) appears that she could be on the lead in a race devoid of early speed. She is second race off the layoff, but she was further back than she had been last time out. She did close well to finish fourth, only two and a half lengths behind the winner. Also note that she did go gate to wire at Saratoga last summer in an allowance near the end of last year’s Saratoga meet.
The 8 Swoop to Finish (6/1 ML) does appear to have a closing kick that would rival the favorite here. She finished second to a runaway winner last time out in her first race in almost four months. She should improve off of that effort where she was squeezed at the start of the race. But that was a race with only five horses.
The 6 Alluring Angel (6/1 ML) does have the ability to close as well here. She has a win already on the turf at Aqueduct, winning last November before going on a layoff. She changed hands last out going from Mike Maker to Chad Brown, and Brown wins 24% of his races out of a 37-race sample size with horses who are running for him for the first time. This filly could be an interesting option here.
This race looks like it could be the Chad Brown show as his two horses are going to be tough here. This could set up as a quarter mile to three-furlong sprint to the finish here. But I think Swoop to Finish will have the strongest kick to the finish and shouldn’t have any issues with the outside post with only eight fillies and mares running here. I think Swoop to Finish will beat the two Chad Brown fillies here as well as Quarrel. I’ll call this 8-6-1-5 and my play is $20 to win on the 8. Good luck everyone!
Also, take note that since the east coast is in the midst of the first heat wave of 2024, there may be some cancellations, potentially to a Quills Picks Winners race. I will try to do whatever I can to come up with an alternate race if time allows. So keep an eye on my X (@JoeQuills) and the Bleacher Brothers site (specifically the horse racing section) in the event the planned race gets cancelled.
Check out my show “Also Eligible” on Saturday mornings at 10 am Eastern/7 am Pacific as AJ Johnson and I discuss the big races, the latest news in horse racing and much more!