The state of the Miami Marlins is an unpredictable one. After their firesale at the trade deadline, the future of the team is unknown, and rather in the hands of their prospects and young talent than their current roster. One player on this roster that’s been trying to break out may have a better role somewhere else on the team, rather than where he is currently.
This player in 2021 was the Marlins fifth best prospect, ranking behind Jazz Chisholm Jr., Max Meyer, JJ Bleday, and Sixto Sanchez. In 2022, this player was the Marlins second best prospect behind Khalil Watson, who was eventually traded to the Guardians organization.
Edward Cabrera is now according to FanGraphs, the Marlins Starting Pitcher #1. With injuries to Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, and Eury Perez, it has given more of a role to Cabrera in the starting rotation. Pre-all star break, Cabrera struggled, posting a 8.26 ERA and post-all star break, has been much better, appearing to turn a corner with a 3.83 ERA.
While he’s turned his numbers around in the second half, the bullpen could be a better spot for Cabrera going forward. Going back to the point of the Marlins future depending on the development of their younger talent and prospects, there are multiple young top prospect arms that can break the rotation in the next few years.
The Marlins recently traded for former Padres prospect arm Robby Snelling at the deadline. The left hander should debut in 2025, and make his audition to the Miami rotation that will almost still certainly feature Cabrera.
2026 should feature young flamethrower Noble Meyer’s debut at the big league level. The 10th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft has shown front of the rotation starting pitcher potential with his velocity and pitch mix at such a young age.
To follow those two in 2027 should be the debut of the current Marlins top prospect Thomas White. The left hander has incredible stuff with a great fastball-curveball combination. With his size and frame, he should be able to be a long term part of this Miami starting rotation.
So the future rotation has a lot of potential names you could throw around, but once you get to about 2027, Cabrera’s name most likely shows up less in that conversation. When thinking about what the Marlins rotation will look like by 2027, the most likely names thrown around are:
- Sandy Alcantara RHP
- Eury Perez RHP
- Max Meyer RHP
- Noble Meyer RHP
- Thomas White LHP
Cabrera and the Marlins may soon come to realize that he could be most effective out of the bullpen. While Cabrera has shown he can be an effective starter, he has the stuff of a great relief pitcher, and with the future rotation getting too crowded, he can make his money out of the bullpen. .
Let’s take a look at Cabrera’s pitch mix before diving into more reasons as to why this move would be a win-win for both Cabrera and the Marlins. Cabrera currently has a five-pitch mix according to baseball savant, consisting of a changeup, four-seam fastball, curveball, slider and sinker. When it comes to how often he uses each pitch, the list goes:
- Changeup – 93 MPH 35%
- Four-seam FB – 96 MPH 26%
- Curveball – 85 MPH 22%
- Slider – 89 MPH 8%
- Sinker – 96 MPH 7%
With that pitch mix, it’s no wonder as to how Cabrera has been able to show the upside of a great starting pitcher. However, his numbers when getting deeper into starts and through batting orders makes it seem that the bullpen could be his best spot. Cabrera’s ERA through the first three innings of the game are solid, but after that point the numbers start to veer off.
In the first inning Cabrera has a 3.00 ERA, in the second he has a 3.60 ERA, and in the third a 2.57 ERA. Now pivoting to his ERA in the next three innings, Cabrera has a 9.00 ERA in the fourth, a 10.00 ERA in the fifth, and a 14.73 ERA in the sixth.
It seems like hitters tend to get a better read on Cabrera the second or third time around getting deeper into games. It raises the point that he may be more effective, and useful to the team coming out of the bullpen for shorter appearances with the stuff he has.
OPENING DAY Starting Rotation:
— LoudMIAMIFan (@LoudMiamiFan) August 26, 2024
Sandy Alcantara
Jesus Luzardo
Braxton Garrett
Ryan Weathers
Max Meyer
BULLPEN:
Declan Cronin
Andrew Nardi
Edward Cabrera
Calvin Faucher
Anthony Bender
George Soriano
Jesus Tinoco
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
He’s shown he can be good when in jams, as hitters have a .213 average with runners in scoring position against Cabrera. Whatever he may have to get himself out of, he’s shown the ability to put up good numbers in tough spots.
Through 2.1 innings pitched with runners on first and third, opponents have a .167 batting average against Cabrera. Hitters with runners at second and first have the same average through 7.0 innings pitched.
Cabrera is great against hitters when he’s ahead in the count, and improving the walk rate can make him an incredibly effective reliever. The command is truly the biggest thing holding him back from being an incredible starter. He currently posts a 12.7% walk rate, ranking in the sixth percentile among all qualified starting pitchers.
With a lower load of innings Cabrera may see these advanced metrics rise. As a pitcher with a great arsenal and well above average velocity on all of his pitches, his numbers across the board should improve only having to see a batting order one or at most two times through.
The stats that are already above average would more than likely improve more as well. Cabrera currently posts an above average strikeout and whiff rate, and with less innings could see those numbers go up.
Edward Cabrera came into the Marlins organization with the ceiling to be a front of the line starter but now within the next few seasons, might see his role in the rotation start to look a lot different. The Marlins have the choice to take advantage of what could be an incredibly versatile bullpen arm.
With his handful of high velocity pitches, Cabrera can be an opener, give you a few innings in the middle of games, and has even shown at times his ability to get out of tough jams in more important situations.
With a depleted rotation Cabrera will continue to anchor down the rotation, and he could very well continue to turn a corner in the future to remain a key piece of the rotation. If that doesn’t pan out however, Cabrera could have great potential out of the bullpen.