The Buffalo Bills are coming to sunny South Florida tomorrow to play their division rival Miami Dolphins. The Bills come in as 1.5 point underdogs and the over/under line is set at 49. Below I will breakdown team differences, how I expect the game will go, as well as an official score prediction.
It all starts for both teams with Josh Allen, if Josh Allen plays like he did last week the Bills should come out victorious. He is a threat with both his arm and his legs, and has found success against the Dolphins his entire career. The question that will be answered is this, does new Dolphins offensive coordinator Anthony Weaver have the answers to stop the Bills best player? Weaver was impressive this past Sunday against the Jaguars, allowing 17 total points and zero second half points. Even with Jalen Ramsey playing through an injury and Bradley Chubb still sidelined, the Dolphins defense was gritty and tough. Players like Jaelan Phillips, Emmanuel Ogbah, and David Long Jr stepped up in a huge way in the fourth quarter.
The Bills offensive line will have the upper hand against Miami’s defensive line. The Jaguars rushed for 128 yards on the Dolphins last Sunday, resulting in 4.9 yards per carry. If the Dolphins want to win this one, they need to stop the run a little better. The Jaguars were able to break off big runs when pinned in the endzone, it is something that helped lead them to sustained drives. Allen provides more of a threat in the run game so it will be no easy task for Miami. Linebackers Jordyn Brooks and David Long Jr will need to be on their p’s and q’s all game.
In the receiving game for the Bills against Miami’s secondary, I think Miami’s secondary is a complete advantage. If there is a positive for Buffalo, Khalil Shakir out of the slot could make some plays against nickel Kader Kohou. Kohou was not awesome against Jacksonville, and Shakir is probably Buffalo’s most consistent receiver. On the outside I believe Buffalo’s wide receivers will struggle. Kendall Fuller is a good number 2 wide receiver and Jalen Ramsey is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. If Ramsey is getting closer to 100% that is a really tough matchup for the Bills. The Bills outside receivers Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, and fan favorite rookie Keon Coleman will need to play outstanding for Josh Allen to be able to throw the ball everywhere on the field. The good news for them is Josh Allen has the ability to fit the ball in unreal windows anyway, so just a little bit of separation will do. Tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid were extremely quiet in week 1, but I expect them to at least double their production tomorrow.
Miami’s offense got off to a slow start last week, but after captain quarterback Tua Tagovailoa fired the team up in the locker room it was a different story. The Dolphins didn’t light the scoreboard up by any means last week, but in the second half they were creating explosive plays, controlling the clock, moving the chains, and bringing the fight to the Jaguars. They did it in multiple ways, they connected on deep balls to Hill and Waddle, but also utilized a power run game. Jeff Wilson Jr was running hard up the middle behind Alec Ingold, he looks like he has a role carved out for him in this offense. Starting running back Raheem Mostert was declared OUT today, and Devon Achane is questionable to play, so it’s very possible Wilson and rookie Jaylen Wright play a massive role for Miami’s offense. Achane not playing would be a massive blow for Miami, he brings a receiving element to the room that no other player can replicate. Buffalo has a tough run defense, so Miami’s run game could very possibly struggle like they did last week.
The receiving game should be as straightforward as it has been for two years. The Dolphins have (in my opinion) by far the best wide receiver duo in the league. They will target their two stud speedsters down the field and in the quick screen game. Buffalo schematically is good at taking away explosive plays, but all it takes is one slip up and the cheetah could have an easy touchdown. Buffalo’s coaching staff are not fools however, they understand what must be done and Tua will likely have to dink and dunk more than usual. Tua played a clean game last week, so if he can replicate that performance (specifically in the second half) the Dolphins will be able to score.
In the special teams game, Jason Sanders is a struggling kicker. He has been inconsistent for years and just missed an easier kick last week. Sanders has a massive leg, and he rarely doesn’t strike the ball well, but he needs to be more accurate. Bills kicker Tyler Bass has similar struggles, but is slightly more consistent than Sanders. He made both of his kicks last week against Arizona. Both punting units are solid, Jake Bailey was outstanding last week and Sam Martin has been punting for forever. Martin is good enough where he has been in Buffalo for 3 seasons.
Buffalo has a new return man named Brandon Codrington who was awesome against Arizona. He took a kick return for 53 yards and took a punt for 7 yards. Miami’s return man Braxton Berrios does not have any fumbling issues, but he also does not create many big returns.
Overall, both squads are in a similar tier where they should make the playoffs. Both teams hate each other, and would like nothing more than to come out with a dominant win tomorrow. However, I do believe it is going to be an extremely close game. I think it could go either way but will give the advantage to the Dolphins playing on their home field.
All said and done, my official prediction is a 21-20 Dolphins victory.